It's important that a mobile developer has personal passion for what they are creating, but it is more important they are also creating a game that has an addressable market. "I support their passion, but in the free-to-play mobile space, we have to remember we are creating games for the other 99 percent. "I see far too many independent developers creating games they'd like to play," Divnich said. It's a market dominance that makes him worry for developers expecting to launch skill-based free-to-play games on mobile. The only four that were built on skill were the aforementioned 8-Ball Pool, Minecraft: Story Mode, Madden NFL, and Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft. Looking at a chart of the recent top grossing games in the US (minus casino games), Divnich found that 26 of the top 30 games were built around the illusion of skill. You have to put yourself in the shoes of those consuming the content and if they're having fun, that's more important to them than whether the games they love require real skill or not." This concept of controlling the pace of progress is not disappearing anytime soon nor do I believe it is a mechanic that hurts enjoyment. However, with the penetration of smartphones, nearly everyone is a potential gamer and we have to understand that what excites them and what drives them to engage in games is much different than what drives a traditional gamer. That still exists and thrives today, and that is not going anywhere. "We grew up in an era where skill-based, high intensity action was the norm. "As gamers, we are hobbyists and have an entirely different perspective of gaming," Divnich said. While Divnich stressed that the illusion of skill shouldn't be viewed as a bad thing in and of itself, he understands long-time gamers may take issue with the concept. It's not a negative concept, it is simply what works in free-to-play mobile." For some, it is a scary thought to know that the most commercially successful games on mobile are really just well-designed rollercoasters. "In these non-skill-based games, you can tell me how many hours you've played, how much money you have spent, and I should be able to tell you within a good degree of certainty how far you are in Candy Crush, what level your town hall is in Clash of Clans, how many times you've ascended in Tap Titans. "No one is actually good at Candy Crush, but some people actually believe they are," Divnich said. "For some, it is a scary thought to know that the most commercially successful games on mobile are really just well-designed rollercoasters." For games based on the illusion of skill, progress through the game occurs at a pace determined by the developers.
As examples, he pointed to games like Asphalt 8, FIFA 16, 8-Ball Pool, World of Tanks, and Vain Glory. For Divnich, the difference is that the former require something of players (such as concentration, precision, input, timing), and their individual skill level and dedication to the game will dictate their progress or performance.
In advance of a talk Divnich will give on the "10 Biggest Mistakes Free-to-Play Developers Make" at the Montreal International Game Summit next week, the Tilting Point VP of product strategy spoke with about the difference between games based on skill, and those based on the illusion of skill. However, that doesn't seem to apply in the world of mobile games, according to Jesse Divnich. From the very first arcade games onward, the industry has embraced the concept of "being good at a game." Whether it was dexterity, strategy, or just lightning-fast reflexes, the most successful video games in the world have usually tested something of the players.